Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated October 12, 2026.
Methodology →
2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$15.5M Vol · 14% to win nomination
78%
Jon Ossoff
$13.3M Vol · 16% to win nomination
74%
Gavin Newsom
$28.0M Vol · 14% to win nomination
69%
Pete Buttigieg
$12.2M Vol · 5% to win nomination
60%
Josh Shapiro
$10.2M Vol · 6% to win nomination
59%
Kamala Harris
$13.9M Vol · 7% to win nomination
57%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Marco Rubio
$10.8M Vol · 17% to win nomination
53%
J.D. Vance
$15.8M Vol · 44% to win nomination
48%
Yes · wins
No · loses
Your stake$
Effective odds (after fees + slippage)
1
Loses Primary (refund)
Wins Primary
2
General Election
Wins General
Loses General