Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated August 27, 2026.
Methodology →
2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$15.0M Vol · 19% to win nomination
72%
Gavin Newsom
$26.9M Vol · 13% to win nomination
67%
Josh Shapiro
$9.6M Vol · 5% to win nomination
62%
Jon Ossoff
$12.8M Vol · 17% to win nomination
61%
Pete Buttigieg
$11.9M Vol · 5% to win nomination
56%
Kamala Harris
$13.0M Vol · 9% to win nomination
50%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com

If they win the primary, will they win the general?

CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION
Marco Rubio
$10.3M Vol · 20% to win nomination
60%
J.D. Vance
$15.3M Vol · 44% to win nomination
47%
Yes · wins
No · loses
Your stake$
Effective odds (after fees + slippage)
1
Loses Primary (refund)
Wins Primary
2
General Election
Wins General
Loses General