Market-implied probability that a candidate wins the general election, given they win the primary election. Each number combines signals from live prediction markets, weighted by liquidity. Last updated October 12, 2026.
Methodology →2028 President·Democratic Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
78%

Jon Ossoff
74%

Gavin Newsom
69%

Pete Buttigieg
60%

Josh Shapiro
59%

Kamala Harris
57%
2028 President·Republican Primary·electabilityindex.com
If they win the primary, will they win the general?
CandidateWINS GENERAL, given NOMINATION

Marco Rubio
53%

J.D. Vance
48%